Get ready, movie buffs! The first holiday weekend of 2026 is shaping up to be a thrilling ride at the box office, with a mix of new releases and beloved classics vying for your attention. This report dives into the predictions for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day frame, offering a glimpse into what you can expect at your local cinema.
Leading the charge is a highly anticipated new release, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. But will it dethrone the reigning champion, Avatar: Fire and Ash? Let's break it down.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is expected to dominate the four-day weekend, aiming for a domestic haul of around $20 million+. This sequel is poised to pick up the pieces from its predecessor. The buzz is strong, with fans eager to dive back into the expanded world crafted by Danny Boyle and Alex Garland.
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy is set to make a triumphant return to the big screen, thanks to a special 25th-anniversary re-release. Tolkien fans are in for a treat, as they celebrate the early anniversary of The Fellowship of the Ring, which first premiered in December 2001. Predictions suggest this re-release could bring in $4 - 6.5 million over the holiday weekend.
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Other films like The Housemaid and Zootopia 2 are predicted to show their staying power over the four-day weekend.
Fresh off multiple Golden Globe wins, Hamnet will expand into an estimated 688 locations.
And as always, keep an eye on the NFL playoffs, which could impact male-driven releases.
Weekend Forecast
Overall, the top 10 films are projected to earn over $75 million+. This would be 8% higher than the same weekend in 2025, but 32% lower than in 2019. Here's a quick look at the estimated numbers:
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | 4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 19 | Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
| :------------------------------------------------ | :---------------- | :----------------------------- | :----------------------------- | :----------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------ | :---------------------------------- |
| 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | Sony | $19,600,000 | NEW | $22,000,000 | $22,000,000 | ~3,000 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney (20th) | $15,700,000 | -27% | $19,100,000 | $368,600,000 | ~3,450 |
| The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $8,400,000 | -23% | $10,100,000 | $108,500,000 | ~3,000 |
| Zootopia 2 | Disney | $8,200,000 | -18% | $10,600,000 | $391,900,000 | ~3,000 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | $5,100,000 | -33% | $6,200,000 | $80,100,000 | ~2,300 |
| Primate | Paramount | $4,400,000 | -61% | $5,200,000 | $19,200,000 | ~2,964 |
| The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Re-Release) | Fathom Entertainment | $4,000,000 | NEW | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | ~1,750 |
| Greenland 2: Migration | Lionsgate | $3,600,000 | -57% | $4,200,000 | $15,100,000 | ~2,710 |
| Anaconda | Sony | $3,200,000 | -36% | $3,900,000 | $59,600,000 | ~2,700 |
| The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants | Paramount | $2,800,000 | -28% | $3,600,000 | $68,400,000 | ~2,200 |
Note: All forecasts are subject to change. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
But here's where it gets controversial... The predictions are just that – predictions. Box office numbers can fluctuate based on a multitude of factors, from word-of-mouth to unexpected events.
What do you think? Will 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple live up to the hype? Will The Lord of the Rings re-release draw in the crowds? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
